IPO GMP: What the Grey Market Premium Tells You - and What the Data Shows
Why GMP numbers are unreliable, and an official-data alternative: how every mainboard IPO since 2016 listed, grouped by subscription, applied to today's IPOs.
Mainboard IPO subscription, combined across NSE and BSE: Bonfiglioli Transmissions 46.1x (closed); Sahajanand Medical Technologies 14.2x (closed); Tonbo Imaging India 135.9x (closed); Zetwerk Manufacturing Businesses 3.1x (closed). Opening next: Jio Platforms (21 Oct 2026), Paras Healthcare (21 Oct 2026). Of 431 mainboard IPOs since 2016, 301 opened above their issue price on listing day.
Grey market premium (GMP) is an unofficial dealer quote that nobody can verify. What can be measured is how IPOs actually listed: this page groups every mainboard IPO since 2016 by how heavily it was subscribed and shows how it opened on listing day - and applies that to today's IPOs.
Grey market premium is the price at which an IPO's shares are said to change hands informally before listing, quoted as a premium over the issue price. It is not traded on any exchange, has no regulator and no record; the numbers in circulation are passed on by dealers and copied between websites. Strota does not publish GMP figures because nobody can check them.
What can be checked is how IPOs actually list. This page takes every mainboard IPO on NSE since 2016, groups them by how many times they were subscribed - consolidated across NSE and BSE - and shows how they opened on their first day. Each IPO open today is placed against that record.
How accurate is GMP?
Trackers that compare reported GMP with actual listings generally find it right about the direction more often than not, but poor at the size of the move, and less reliable for SME issues. GMP also moves with the subscription numbers: when an issue is heavily oversubscribed, the premium quoted for it rises, so much of what GMP says is already visible in the official bid data.
Because grey-market deals are unregulated, there is no recourse if a counterparty does not honour one, and quotes can be pushed around in thin markets.
How to read the listing record
For each subscription band the table shows how many IPOs it holds, how many opened above their issue price, the median opening gain, and the range covering the middle half of outcomes. The range matters as much as the median: even in strong bands some IPOs open flat, and market conditions on listing day move every outcome.
This is a historical record, not a forecast for any IPO. Subscription is measured at the close of bidding, and the band an IPO falls into can change until then.
Where the data comes from
Issue details and subscription by category come from NSE's IPO data, which reports bids consolidated across NSE and BSE. Listing-day open and close prices come from NSE's daily price files. Partly-paid issues and offers that are not IPOs are excluded.
Key takeaways
- GMP is an unofficial, unverifiable dealer quote.
- Subscription at the close of bidding is official and closely linked to listing outcomes.
- Heavily subscribed IPOs have mostly opened above their issue price; thinly subscribed ones have often not.
- Every band has a wide range of outcomes - the median is not a promise.
- The record covers mainboard IPOs on NSE since 2016.
Frequently asked questions
What is GMP in an IPO?
Grey market premium is the premium over the issue price at which an IPO's shares are informally quoted before they list. It comes from unofficial dealer trading, not from any exchange.
Why doesn't Strota show GMP figures?
Because they cannot be verified: there is no exchange, regulator or record behind them, and the numbers online are copied between websites. Strota shows official subscription data and how past IPOs actually listed instead.
Is IPO GMP reliable?
It has been a rough guide to direction and a poor guide to the size of the listing move, according to trackers that compare it with actual listings. It also largely follows the official subscription numbers.
What predicts IPO listing gains?
Nothing reliably, but in Strota's record of mainboard IPOs since 2016, how heavily an issue was subscribed has been strongly linked to how it opened: the table on this page shows the outcomes for each band.
Is grey market trading legal?
It is unregulated: SEBI and the exchanges do not oversee it, and there is no recourse if a grey-market deal is not honoured.
How often is this page updated?
Subscription for open IPOs refreshes through the bidding days; the listing record adds each new mainboard listing after its first trading day.