What to watch:If the spread persists 2-3 sessions, a pair-trade (long PSU Banks, hedged against Fin Services) becomes attractive. Single-sector bets are riskier on rotation days because index-level direction is muted.

FII selling absorbed by DII buying

FIIs sold ₹3,810 Cr while DIIs bought ₹4,120 Cr. Domestic demand is cushioning the foreign supply — this is what keeps the index range-bound rather than breaking down.

What to watch:Any sustainable rally needs FIIs to flip net-buyer. Until that happens expect chop. Mid/smallcaps are the early-warning system — they crack first if DII demand weakens, even if the index looks calm.

Expiry in 2 days — different rules apply

With FIIs heavy short on futures going into expiry, expect option writers to defend high-OI strikes. Max-pain becomes a magnet, theta accelerates, and intraday moves get whippier than they look.

What to watch:Avoid carrying directional option longs through expiry without strong conviction — they bleed fast. Cash trades on the underlying indices are cleaner this week than option spreads.

Why is it pricing this way?

Overnight Setup global & macro backdrop

Overnight Global Cues

Mixed cues

S&P +0.23% · Nikkei -0.62%

Macro Backdrop

Crude / USDINR

Crude $97.8 (-5.7%) · USDINR 94.92 (-0.07%)

Where is money moving today?

Sector Money Flow based on sector-index momentum

↑Money flowing IN

PSU Banks

+2.46%

↓Money flowing OUT

Fin Services

-1.58%

FMCG

-1.44%

-1.28%

Realty

-1.20%

Auto

-0.69%

Infra

-0.68%

Pharma

-0.65%

Banks

-0.64%

Energy

-0.60%

Metal

-0.55%

Media

-0.26%

Gold

4,142.0

-0.44%

Silver

58.0

+1.73%

Copper

6.6

+1.19%

Crude

97.8

-5.68%

USDINR

94.92

-0.07%

10Y UST

5.12%

-0.25%

What are derivative traders doing?

NIFTY Option Chain nearest expiry 2026-10-19 · spot 22,889 · EOD 2026-10-19

Writers expect Nifty between 22,850 and 22,900 this week — +0.1% upside, -0.2% downside.

downside-skewed

Call OI (writers)	Strike	Put OI (writers)
264,485 -99k IV 17% Δ 1.00 θ -4.5 ν 0	22300	5,746,390 -1578k IV 17% Δ -0.00 θ -0.6 ν 0
94,380 -48k IV 16% Δ 1.00 θ -4.5 ν 0	22350	3,038,425 +558k IV 16% Δ -0.00 θ -0.5 ν 0
289,120 -254k IV 15% Δ 1.00 θ -4.5 ν 0	22400	6,579,885 -464k IV 15% Δ -0.00 θ -0.5 ν 0
102,375 -93k IV 14% Δ 1.00 θ -4.7 ν 0	22450	3,354,650 +334k IV 14% Δ -0.00 θ -0.8 ν 0
600,990 -923k IV 13% Δ 1.00 θ -4.7 ν 0	22500	10,648,950 -2392k IV 13% Δ -0.00 θ -0.7 ν 0
185,250 -151k IV 11% Δ 1.00 θ -4.9 ν 0	22550	3,034,200 -846k IV 11% Δ -0.00 θ -0.9 ν 0
559,065 -608k IV 10% Δ 0.99 θ -4.9 ν 0	22600	6,879,795 -2827k IV 10% Δ -0.01 θ -0.9 ν 0
319,020 -340k IV 9% Δ 0.99 θ -5.1 ν 0	22650	6,205,030 +633k IV 9% Δ -0.01 θ -1.0 ν 0
1,097,265 -696k IV 8% Δ 0.99 θ -5.5 ν 0	22700	9,838,010 -2061k IV 8% Δ -0.01 θ -1.4 ν 0
666,705 -53k IV 7% Δ 0.97 θ -6.4 ν 1	22750	8,081,320 +2781k IV 7% Δ -0.03 θ -2.3 ν 1
2,106,975 +730k IV 6% Δ 0.93 θ -8.7 ν 2	22800	9,679,215 -728k IV 6% Δ -0.07 θ -4.6 ν 2
5,966,610 +5305k IV 5% Δ 0.81 θ -11.7 ν 3	22850 S	15,776,475 +10223k IV 5% Δ -0.19 θ -7.7 ν 3
23,621,520 +20902k IV 3% Δ 0.54 θ -9.8 ν 5	22900 R MP	13,184,145 +2218k IV 3% Δ -0.46 θ -5.7 ν 5
14,741,220 +13651k IV 4% Δ 0.18 θ -7.1 ν 3	22950	4,715,685 -1153k IV 4% Δ -0.82 θ -3.0 ν 3
16,395,275 +9795k IV 5% Δ 0.06 θ -3.6 ν 1	23000	4,717,830 -6486k IV 5% Δ -0.94 θ +0.5 ν 1
10,946,065 +7615k IV 6% Δ 0.03 θ -2.6 ν 1	23050	1,980,355 -1909k IV 6% Δ -0.97 θ +1.5 ν 1
13,072,930 +3983k IV 8% Δ 0.02 θ -1.8 ν 0	23100	3,895,970 -5177k IV 8% Δ -0.98 θ +2.3 ν 0
9,027,135 +2714k IV 9% Δ 0.01 θ -1.2 ν 0	23150	3,117,660 -872k IV 9% Δ -0.99 θ +2.9 ν 0
9,965,800 +1101k IV 10% Δ 0.01 θ -1.1 ν 0	23200	1,181,765 -1048k IV 10% Δ -0.99 θ +3.0 ν 0
4,739,735 +83k IV 11% Δ 0.00 θ -0.9 ν 0	23250	352,430 -127k IV 11% Δ -1.00 θ +3.2 ν 0
6,866,535 -940k IV 12% Δ 0.00 θ -1.0 ν 0	23300	242,840 -250k IV 12% Δ -1.00 θ +3.2 ν 0
3,722,810 -673k IV 13% Δ 0.00 θ -0.8 ν 0	23350	109,915 -18k IV 13% Δ -1.00 θ +3.4 ν 0
5,937,815 -1362k IV 15% Δ 0.00 θ -0.8 ν 0	23400	313,560 +95k IV 15% Δ -1.00 θ +3.4 ν 0
2,716,025 -1509k IV 16% Δ 0.00 θ -0.8 ν 0	23450	104,715 -53k IV 16% Δ -1.00 θ +3.4 ν 0
10,787,465 -2769k IV 17% Δ 0.00 θ -0.8 ν 0	23500	210,795 -77k IV 17% Δ -1.00 θ +3.4 ν 0

What this tells you

Spot 22,889

Resistance (R) 22,900

Support (S) 22,850

Max Pain (MP) 22,900

Highest call-OI strike = where writers expect resistance. Highest put-OI strike = where writers expect support. Max-pain magnet pulls strongest in expiry week.

Strategy Builder multi-leg payoff for NIFTY options · 2026-10-19 expiry

Underlying: NIFTY · Spot: ₹ 22,888.95 · Expiry: 2026-10-19 · Lot: 65

Legs

Side

Type

Strike

Qty

Premium

Net premium—

Max profit—

Max loss—

Breakevens—

Position Delta—

Position Theta/day—

Position Vega/1% IV—

Payoff at expiry

F&O OI Buildup stock futures · total OI across all expiries · 2026-10-19

Long Buildup price up + OI up — fresh longs added

ANANDRATHI

+0.66%

OI +21.0%

ABB

+2.41%

OI +13.7%

FEDERALBNK

+3.34%

OI +4.8%

CGPOWER

+1.09%

OI +4.6%

SIEMENS

+0.08%

OI +4.3%

HINDZINC

+0.53%

OI +4.0%

+0.37%

OI +2.9%

INDIANB

+0.07%

OI +2.7%

Short Covering price up + OI down — shorts closing

BANKINDIA

+3.39%

OI -5.4%

SBIN

+1.40%

OI -2.7%

ADANIPORTS

+0.94%

OI -2.4%

BAJAJHLDNG

+0.47%

OI -2.3%

CANBK

+2.60%

OI -2.3%

LAURUSLABS

+0.12%

OI -1.4%

BANKBARODA

+3.49%

OI -1.3%

GMRAIRPORT

+0.53%

OI -1.2%

Short Buildup price down + OI up — fresh shorts added

360ONE

-1.81%

OI +13.6%

WAAREEENER

-0.87%

OI +12.3%

PRESTIGE

-0.82%

OI +10.5%

PREMIERENE

-0.68%

OI +9.7%

TCS

-0.42%

OI +8.4%

IREDA

-2.32%

OI +8.0%

ULTRACEMCO

-3.20%

OI +6.6%

HYUNDAI

-1.07%

OI +6.4%

Long Unwinding price down + OI down — longs closing

UJJIVANSFB

-0.13%

OI -4.0%

PERSISTENT

-0.07%

OI -2.9%

KOTAKBANK

-0.69%

OI -2.5%

INFY

-3.12%

OI -2.3%

HCLTECH

-0.49%

OI -2.1%

ICICIBANK

-1.01%

OI -2.0%

MAXHEALTH

-1.93%

OI -1.8%

BAJAJ-AUTO

-0.98%

OI -1.7%

Unusual OI Buildup stocks with ±20%+ OI swings today · positioning outliers

Symbol	Classification	Price Δ	OI Δ
ANANDRATHI	Long Buildup	+0.66%	+21.0%

Futures Basis Screener premium/discount of nearest-expiry futures to spot

↑ Premium · futures trading above spot

Symbol	Spot	Future	Basis %
HINDZINC	538.36	544.50	+1.14%
PHOENIXLTD	1,884.00	1,897.70	+0.73%
BAJFINANCE	957.35	962.65	+0.55%
ASTRAL	1,427.88	1,435.20	+0.51%
LICHSGFIN	511.50	514.05	+0.50%
PGEL	507.62	510.15	+0.50%
BAJAJ-AUTO	10,287.01	10,338.00	+0.50%
SHREECEM	22,290.07	22,400.00	+0.49%

↓ Discount · futures trading below spot

Symbol	Spot	Future	Basis %
IRFC	78.37	77.14	-1.57%
360ONE	1,054.98	1,042.80	-1.16%
WAAREEENER	2,514.91	2,487.80	-1.08%
TECHM	1,779.09	1,764.40	-0.83%
PRESTIGE	1,475.00	1,466.30	-0.59%
HCLTECH	1,379.89	1,372.50	-0.54%
AMBUJACEM	361.70	359.85	-0.51%
HEROMOTOCO	5,229.92	5,204.50	-0.49%

Top Traded F&O Contracts where derivative volume is concentrated today

Contract	Type	Close	Traded Value	OI	OI Δ
NIFTY26O1922900PE	IDO	13.40	42.85 L Cr	13,184,145	+2,218,515
NIFTY26O1922800PE	IDO	2.30	39.09 L Cr	9,679,215	-727,350
NIFTY26O1922850PE	IDO	6.55	38.37 L Cr	15,776,475	+10,223,850
NIFTY26O1923000CE	IDO	1.40	34.59 L Cr	16,395,275	+9,795,695
NIFTY26O1922900CE	IDO	17.35	31.83 L Cr	23,621,520	+20,902,765
NIFTY26O1923100CE	IDO	0.50	29.68 L Cr	13,072,930	+3,983,005
NIFTY26O1922950CE	IDO	4.70	28.58 L Cr	14,741,220	+13,651,170
NIFTY26O1923000PE	IDO	89.30	27.07 L Cr	4,717,830	-6,485,830
NIFTY26O1923050CE	IDO	0.85	23.79 L Cr	10,946,065	+7,615,530
NIFTY26O1922950PE	IDO	40.45	23.41 L Cr	4,715,685	-1,152,580
NIFTY26O1923200CE	IDO	0.25	21.98 L Cr	9,965,800	+1,101,360
NIFTY26O1922750PE	IDO	0.80	21.11 L Cr	8,081,320	+2,781,155

Who's actually moving the money?

Smart Counterparty Activity 19-Oct-2026

1 FII sells · 2 Promoter buys / 1 sells · 128 deals totaling ₹3,187 Cr. Showing top 20 by value.

Stock	Type	Side	Qty	Value (₹ Cr)	Counterparty
PCJEWELLER PC Jeweller Ltd	Bulk	SELL	208,433,777	375.39	JUMP TRADING FINANCIAL INDIA PRIVATE LIMITED
PCJEWELLER PC Jeweller Ltd	Bulk	BUY	204,026,916	368.06	JUMP TRADING FINANCIAL INDIA PRIVATE LIMITED
ETERNAL ETERNAL LIMITED	Block	BUY	5,337,584	168.67	BOFA SECURITIES EUROPE SA
ETERNAL ETERNAL LIMITED	Block	SELL	5,337,584	168.67	GOLDMAN SACHS BANK EUROPE SE ODI FII
PCJEWELLER PC Jeweller Ltd	Bulk	BUY	89,281,220	160.88	HRTI PRIVATE LIMITED
PCJEWELLER PC Jeweller Ltd	Bulk	SELL	76,312,810	137.82	HRTI PRIVATE LIMITED
JUSTDIAL Justdial Ltd.	Bulk	SELL	758,066	57.95	ALPHAGREP SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITED
JUSTDIAL Justdial Ltd.	Bulk	BUY	758,066	57.93	ALPHAGREP SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITED
IXIGO Le Travenues Technology L	Bulk	SELL	3,445,311	54.74	MICROCURVES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITED
IXIGO Le Travenues Technology L	Bulk	BUY	3,445,311	54.70	MICROCURVES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITED
JUSTDIAL Justdial Ltd.	Bulk	SELL	706,586	54.57	ELIXIR WEALTH MANAGEMENT PRIVATE LIMITED
JUSTDIAL Justdial Ltd.	Bulk	BUY	706,631	54.51	ELIXIR WEALTH MANAGEMENT PRIVATE LIMITED
JUSTDIAL Justdial Ltd.	Bulk	SELL	673,497	51.28	MICROCURVES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITED
JUSTDIAL Justdial Ltd.	Bulk	BUY	673,497	51.26	MICROCURVES TRADING PRIVATE LIMITED
JUSTDIAL Justdial Ltd.	Bulk	SELL	568,108	43.52	QE SECURITIES LLP
IXIGO Le Travenues Technology L	Bulk	SELL	2,710,054	43.11	NK SECURITIES RESEARCH PRIVATE LIMITED
IXIGO Le Travenues Technology L	Bulk	BUY	2,710,054	43.09	NK SECURITIES RESEARCH PRIVATE LIMITED
JUSTDIAL Justdial Ltd.	Bulk	BUY	561,427	42.90	QE SECURITIES LLP
IXIGO Le Travenues Technology L	Bulk	SELL	2,555,483	40.66	ALPHAGREP SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITED
IXIGO Le Travenues Technology L	Bulk	BUY	2,555,483	40.64	ALPHAGREP SECURITIES PRIVATE LIMITED

Institutional Streaks consecutive sessions with FII / MF / Insurance activity on the same side

Stock	Side	Streak	Total Value	Window	Notable Buyers
GLASSWALL	SELL	10d	₹ 465 Cr	2026-09-17 → 2026-09-30	PLUTUS RESEARCH PRIVATE LIMITED · PLUTUS WEALTH MANAGEMENT LLP
GLASSWALL	BUY	10d	₹ 465 Cr	2026-09-17 → 2026-09-30	PLUTUS RESEARCH PRIVATE LIMITED · PLUTUS WEALTH MANAGEMENT LLP
KANOHAR	SELL	5d	₹ 333 Cr	2026-10-05 → 2026-10-09	PLUTUS WEALTH MANAGEMENT LLP
KANOHAR	BUY	5d	₹ 333 Cr	2026-10-05 → 2026-10-09	PLUTUS WEALTH MANAGEMENT LLP
MONEYVIEW	SELL	4d	₹ 392 Cr	2026-10-07 → 2026-10-12	PLUTUS WEALTH MANAGEMENT LLP
MONEYVIEW	BUY	4d	₹ 392 Cr	2026-10-07 → 2026-10-12	PLUTUS WEALTH MANAGEMENT LLP
MOBIKWIK	SELL	4d	₹ 115 Cr	2026-10-06 → 2026-10-09	BAJAJ LIFE INSURANCE LIMITED · PLUTUS WEALTH MANAGEMENT LLP
RENTOMOJO	BUY	3d	₹ 113 Cr	2026-09-17 → 2026-09-21	HELIOS MUTUAL FUND · PLUTUS RESEARCH PRIVATE LIMITED · PLUTUS WEALTH MANAGEMENT LLP
MOBIKWIK	BUY	3d	₹ 98 Cr	2026-10-07 → 2026-10-09	PLUTUS WEALTH MANAGEMENT LLP
LENSKART	BUY	2d	₹ 2,893 Cr	2026-08-28 → 2026-08-31	BAJAJ LIFE INSURANCE LIMITED · BLACKROCK EMERGING MARKETS FUND INC · EDELWEISS MUTUAL FUND · +10 more
CMLL	BUY	2d	₹ 139 Cr	2026-07-24 → 2026-07-27	CARNELIAN ASSET MANAGEMENT & ADVISORS PRIVATE LIMITED · GOLDMAN SACHS BANK EUROPE SE ODI · PLUTUS RESEARCH PRIVATE LIMITED
SSRETAIL	SELL	2d	₹ 109 Cr	2026-10-14 → 2026-10-15	PLUTUS WEALTH MANAGEMENT LLP

What are institutions positioned for?

Institutional Positioning how FIIs are set up under the surface

FII Futures Posture

Heavy Short

net-long ratio -79.0%

FII Direction Streak

2 sessions

net distributing futures

India VIX

14.77

Calm · +5.0% d/d

Days to Monthly Expiry

Thu, 24 Sep

Nifty PCR (EOD)

0.80

Bullish skew

Nifty Max Pain (EOD)

22,900

in line with spot (22,889)

Any patterns firing?

Event Signals 2 firing today

Monthly Expiry Imminent

Last Thursday of the month is Thu, 24 Sep — 2 day(s) away

What it means:Within 2 trading days of monthly F&O expiry (last Thursday).

What it implies:Option writers actively defend high-OI strikes near expiry. Theta accelerates, max-pain becomes a magnet, intraday moves get whippier. Context, not a prediction.

Experimental detector · insufficient historical fires to validate.

warning

Retail-vs-FII Divergence Widening

Retail net-long 69% vs FII net-long -79% (spread 148pp, widened +4.2pp today)

What it means:Retail traders (Client category in NSE F&O data) are heavily net-long index futures (>30%) at the same time FII is heavily net-short (<-30%).

What it implies:Classic retail-trap setup. When retail and FII are on opposite extremes, the market historically resolves in FII's favour. Watch closely; do not chase retail conviction.

Experimental detector · insufficient historical fires to validate.

warning

Events Calendar next 3 weeks · earnings + macro releases + monthly expiry

2026-10-21

EARNINGS ADANIGREEN reports earnings EPS est: 3.6675

EARNINGS ETERNAL reports earnings EPS est: 0.2325

2026-10-22

EARNINGS ADANIENSOL reports earnings EPS est: 9.89667

EARNINGS COLPAL reports earnings EPS est: 13.8775

EARNINGS HAVELLS reports earnings EPS est: 5.6

2026-10-23

EARNINGS ADANIPOWER reports earnings EPS est: 1.71

EARNINGS BPCL reports earnings EPS est: 13.9

EARNINGS CGPOWER reports earnings EPS est: 2.34484

EARNINGS COFORGE reports earnings EPS est: 15.10952

EARNINGS DIXON reports earnings EPS est: 45.55353

EARNINGS DRREDDY reports earnings EPS est: 8.94717

EARNINGS GODREJPROP reports earnings EPS est: 15.2

2026-10-24

EARNINGS AUBANK reports earnings EPS est: 11.7325

2026-10-27

EARNINGS BAJAJ-AUTO reports earnings EPS est: 114.298

EARNINGS CIPLA reports earnings EPS est: 11.82917

EARNINGS CONCOR reports earnings EPS est: 4.675

2026-10-28

EARNINGS ADANIENT reports earnings EPS est: 13.62

EARNINGS ADANIPORTS reports earnings EPS est: 16.535

EARNINGS BANDHANBNK reports earnings EPS est: 3.25

EARNINGS CHOLAFIN reports earnings EPS est: 18.85333

2026-10-29

EARNINGS ABCAPITAL reports earnings EPS est: 4.73

EARNINGS AMBUJACEM reports earnings EPS est: 1.436

EARNINGS APLAPOLLO reports earnings EPS est: 12.95522

EARNINGS ASIANPAINT reports earnings EPS est: 12.14922

EARNINGS BEL reports earnings EPS est: 1.915

EARNINGS BLUESTARCO reports earnings EPS est: 4.09762

EARNINGS CAMS reports earnings EPS est: 5.1

EARNINGS COALINDIA reports earnings EPS est: 11.92968

EARNINGS DLF reports earnings EPS estimate unavailable

EARNINGS GODREJCP reports earnings EPS est: 5.3625

EXPIRY NIFTY / BankNifty Monthly F&O Expiry Theta accelerates; max-pain magnet near close

2026-10-30

EARNINGS BANKBARODA reports earnings EPS estimate unavailable

EARNINGS GAIL reports earnings EPS est: 4.90987

EARNINGS GLENMARK reports earnings EPS est: 15.6

2026-10-31

EARNINGS DIVISLAB reports earnings EPS est: 32.23538

2026-11-03

EARNINGS BAJAJFINSV reports earnings EPS estimate unavailable

EARNINGS BAJAJHLDNG reports earnings EPS estimate unavailable

2026-11-04

FED US Fed FOMC Decision Fed funds rate decision

EARNINGS APOLLOHOSP reports earnings EPS est: 44.48308

EARNINGS CUMMINSIND reports earnings EPS est: 21.53563

EARNINGS DABUR reports earnings EPS est: 2.82

EARNINGS DELHIVERY reports earnings EPS est: 0.754

2026-11-05

EARNINGS AUROPHARMA reports earnings EPS est: 19.31493

EARNINGS BHARTIARTL reports earnings EPS est: 15.1594

EARNINGS BRITANNIA reports earnings EPS est: 29.40494

EARNINGS CROMPTON reports earnings EPS est: 2.3

EARNINGS GRASIM reports earnings EPS est: 45.05

2026-11-06

EARNINGS BOSCHLTD reports earnings EPS est: 245.02025

Have we been right before?

Signal Calendar last 14 weeks

Bullish Bearish Warning Quiet

FII Positioning Detail

FII Index Futures net-long ratio -79.0% -3.73 pp

FII calls long Δ -162,682

FII puts long Δ -326,774

FII calls short Δ -162,664

FII puts short Δ -330,570

Recent Signals click a date to revisit that day's dashboard

2026-09-22

Monthly Expiry Imminent * Retail-vs-FII Divergence Widening *

2026-09-09

DII Futures Build-up *

2026-09-02

DII Futures Unwind *

2026-08-27

Monthly Expiry Imminent * Retail-vs-FII Divergence Widening *

2026-08-26

Monthly Expiry Imminent *

2026-08-25

FII Short Covering Monthly Expiry Imminent * DII Futures Unwind *

Smart-Money Flow Tracker for Indian Markets live FII / DII positioning, F&O OI buildup, bulk deals & option chain · session 2026-09-22 · vs 2026-09-21

Stock Heatmap NIFTY 500 universe · sized by traded value · click any cell for details

Futures Heatmap F&O stocks · sized by futures traded value · coloured by OI buildup class

Stocks in Play last session's positioning · click any card for full detail

Market Pulse indices live · 21 Oct 00:14 IST · cash flows at session close 22 Sep

Smart Money Take interpretation, not just data

Overnight Setup global & macro backdrop

Sector Money Flow based on sector-index momentum

NIFTY Option Chain nearest expiry 2026-10-19 · spot 22,889 · EOD 2026-10-19

What this tells you

Strategy Builder multi-leg payoff for NIFTY options · 2026-10-19 expiry

Legs

Payoff at expiry

F&O OI Buildup stock futures · total OI across all expiries · 2026-10-19

Unusual OI Buildup stocks with ±20%+ OI swings today · positioning outliers

Futures Basis Screener premium/discount of nearest-expiry futures to spot

↑ Premium · futures trading above spot

↓ Discount · futures trading below spot

Top Traded F&O Contracts where derivative volume is concentrated today

Smart Counterparty Activity 19-Oct-2026

Institutional Streaks consecutive sessions with FII / MF / Insurance activity on the same side

Institutional Positioning how FIIs are set up under the surface

Event Signals 2 firing today

Events Calendar next 3 weeks · earnings + macro releases + monthly expiry

Signal Calendar last 14 weeks

FII Positioning Detail

Recent Signals click a date to revisit that day's dashboard

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